The Effect of Casino Proximity on Lottery Sales: Evidence from Maryland

By Will E. Cummings, Douglas M. Walker, Chad D. Cotti.

The continued expansion of the casino industry has caused increasing concern regarding the cannibalization of other industries, and in particular, state lotteries. For example, Maryland Lottery sales flattened shortly after casinos began opening in the state. Although previous papers have found that casinos and lotteries have a negative relationship with each other, no previous research has analyzed the impact of casino proximity on lottery sales or has examined the relationship between casinos and different types of lottery games. In this paper, we examine ZIP code-level monthly lottery sales data from Maryland between July 2009 and February 2014, in order to test the impact of casino proximity on lottery sales, by type of game. Our findings indicate that aggregate lottery sales decline more in closer proximity to casinos, but that casinos affect different lottery products differently. We discuss the consumer behavior and public finance implications of the findings. (JEL H27, H4, L83)